Its all about the goats
Two Wednesdays ago Curtsolo did a class on the Principle of Restricted Choice, (yeah, pretty sure we wanted to go with title case on that) which is where if someone plays an honor and the honors could be split or he could be throwing from two, IN THE ABSENSE OF OTHER INFORMATION, you play for the other guy to have the other honor.
Yeah, this is where Monty Hall and the goats come in. Let's say you're in your chicken suit and Monty is asking if you want to keep what's in your prize, or trade for what's behind one of the two doors. Ok, it's two to one that the good prize is behind one of the other doors. Then to make it more interesting Monty shows you what's behind door numbe 2. Goats. He's not going to open the door with the car right? Take what's behind door number three. Switch. Because the door he didn't open is still two to one to be the car.
Yeah, this is where Monty Hall and the goats come in. Let's say you're in your chicken suit and Monty is asking if you want to keep what's in your prize, or trade for what's behind one of the two doors. Ok, it's two to one that the good prize is behind one of the other doors. Then to make it more interesting Monty shows you what's behind door numbe 2. Goats. He's not going to open the door with the car right? Take what's behind door number three. Switch. Because the door he didn't open is still two to one to be the car.